Scenario NCS 2020

Scenario NCS 2020 - was the title of the talk organised by NPF (Norwegian Petroleu Society) on 25 November at the Petroleum Museum in Stavanger, Norway. The presentation was given by Jarand Rystad, Managing Partner of Rystand Energy AS.

The presentation looked at NCS in 2020 with focus on the player landscape.  What will most likely happen if current trends are to continue?  And what might alternatively happen if big changes take place?  Rystad went through three scenarios looking at how events like extreme oil prices, fiscal changes, major discoveries and technology breakthroughs might influence value creation and the player landscape. 

He started with giving an overview of the current players in the NCS. He had them into two broad groups;

1) The Incumbents: with the likes of StatoilHydro, ConocoPhillips, BP etc,

2) The Challengers: comprising of the many new players like the European Energy companies GdF, Dong, Ruhr Gas to Norwegian grown companies like Noreco, Revus to the opportunists like Aker Exploraiton etc.

Rystand dwelled on the following three scenarios:

1) Most of the Incumbent players operating with players from the Challengers like those of GdF, BG operating in the NCS

2) Some of the Incumbents leaving the NCS like Exxonmobil, BP and more of the Challengers, especially, Norwegian grown companies like Norecon becoming more active.

3) Rystad reckons if the Oil price continues its dip to the south, chances are very strong that only Incumbents like StatoilHydro will be around.

The presentation was followed by a very intresting Q&A. Questions ranging from why were the Russian & Chinese companies not included in the Challengers. Rystad politely agreed to having them and look at a possible scenario with these comapnies also operating in NCS.

One question from the audience was; whatever the scenario, a common Norwegian would expect the best returns for their national resources. A gentleman from NPF in the audience made a very good point that the Norwegian authroities are creating an environment to foster Enterprise which would lead to competition and thus lead to getting the best value.

There was a discussion on the effects of the Statoil Hydro merger. This, as is evident, is leading to more opportunities for the merged company as it becomes a bigger company and has a stronger presence globally. But the audience also reckoned that this let to a bit of unbalanced voice around the table at the licensing rounds. The strong voice of Hydro is being missed and no other Norwegain comapny has been able to step into the vaccum.

This was my first to attend these small presentation networking evenings organised by the NPF. I thoroughly enjoyed it and look forward to more of these.